💱 THE RUPEE RATE

For every £1,000 you send home this week, your family receives approximately Rs 372,000. Rates checked 11 July 2026

📈 KSE-100 THIS WEEK

Pakistan's main stock market index rose to 183,252 points on Thursday, gaining 1.10% from the previous session, and is up 36.45% compared to the same time last year. It has been a deeply volatile week - the index hit an intraday high above 187,000 on Monday before fresh US strikes on Iran sent it plunging 4,626 points on Wednesday to 181,629. It has since partially recovered. This volatility is the new normal: peace deal holding in structure, Middle East tensions flaring up at the edges.

Pakistan just confirmed record annual remittances of $41.6 billion - the highest in the country's history. Here is what that means.

What happened

Pakistan received a record $41.6 billion in workers' remittances during fiscal year 2025-26, marking the highest annual inflow in the country's history. The record was driven by an extraordinary May 2026 figure of $4.3 billion - the highest single monthly remittance total ever recorded - up 15.4% year-on-year and 20.2% month-on-month. Cumulatively, workers' remittances increased by 9.2% to $38.1 billion during July-May FY26, compared to $34.9 billion received during the same period last year. The inflow of overseas workers' remittances stood at $4.251 billion in May 2026 alone.

Why it matters

$41.6 billion is not just a record. It is a structural statement about Pakistan's economy. Three years ago, Pakistan was on the edge of sovereign default. Its foreign exchange reserves had fallen to under $4 billion - barely enough to cover three weeks of imports. The IMF bailout, the austerity, the inflation - all of it was a consequence of a simple problem: Pakistan was spending more dollars than it was earning. Remittances are the single most important reason that equation has turned around.

To put $41.6 billion in context: it is larger than Pakistan's entire goods export revenue. It is roughly 9% of Pakistan's $452 billion GDP. It exceeds the combined value of FDI, portfolio investment, and multilateral loans that Pakistan received this year. Every pound, dollar, and dirham that overseas Pakistanis sent home through official channels this year contributed to a reserve position that has now risen to $22 billion - the highest in years - and a current account that has moved from crisis-level deficit to surplus.

The May 2026 surge to $4.3 billion specifically is worth understanding. It coincided with three things happening simultaneously: Eid al-Adha, when families need money for qurbani and celebrations; the peace deal signing on 17 June approaching, which prompted overseas Pakistanis to send money while the rupee was strengthening; and the sustained improvement in formal channel usage following the government's years-long push to move remittances out of the hawala system and into regulated banking channels.

What it means for you

If you are a reader of this newsletter who sends money home regularly, you are directly part of that $41.6 billion. PM Shehbaz Sharif hailed overseas Pakistanis as the country's "most valuable asset" this week, saying their remittances remained a lifeline for the economy. That is not political rhetoric - it is macroeconomic fact. The target for FY27 is $42 billion. Given the trajectory - a record year, record monthly high in May, growing number of Pakistanis registering for work abroad - that target is achievable.

One practical note: the Sohni Dharti Remittance Programme has been discontinued as we covered last week. But industry experts confirm this will not dent inflows. The structural driver of remittances - the sheer and growing number of Pakistanis working abroad - is stronger than any loyalty points scheme. Keep sending through official channels. The economic case has not changed.

The government raised petrol prices by Rs13 per litre today. Here is why - and whether this reverses the relief of recent months.

What happened

The federal government raised the prices of petrol and diesel by over Rs13 per litre each, with new prices taking effect from July 11, 2026 - today. In the previous fortnightly review, the government had reduced prices by Rs1.97 per litre each, taking petrol to Rs297.53 per litre and diesel to Rs309.50 per litre. Today's revision reverses those reductions and adds more, taking petrol back above Rs310 per litre. The revision comes as Brent crude futures were trading at $75.78 a barrel and WTI at $71.25 - higher than the lows seen when the Rs74 cut was announced in June, but still dramatically below the April peak of above $120.

Why it matters

The Rs13 hike today needs to be understood in the context of the full journey. Petrol peaked at Rs458.41 per litre during the height of the Iran-US war in April. It fell to Rs297.53 just two weeks ago - a total decline of Rs160 in under three months. Today's Rs13 hike takes it back to approximately Rs311. The net position versus the April peak is still a reduction of nearly Rs147 per litre. This is not a reversal of the relief - it is a small correction within a much larger downward trend.

What caused it? Fresh US strikes on Iran this week temporarily reignited fears of Hormuz disruption, sending Brent crude sharply higher before it partially recovered. Pakistan's petroleum pricing formula is linked to international crude prices on a fortnightly review cycle. When oil spikes - even briefly - the formula pushes domestic prices up. The government has limited discretion to absorb these fluctuations without incurring fiscal costs that the IMF would flag.

The broader picture: oil is still at $75 a barrel versus $120+ in April. The direction of travel for Pakistan's fuel prices over the next three to six months remains downward, as long as the peace deal holds and Iranian oil supply continues to return to the market. Today's hike is a bump on that road, not a change of direction.

What it means for you

For families in Pakistan, petrol at Rs311 is still dramatically cheaper than Rs458 in April. The Rs13 increase will add a modest amount to transport costs - expect rickshaw and taxi fares to tick up slightly in the next week or two, and food delivery costs may edge higher. But this is not the inflationary shock of March and April. The impact on headline CPI will be marginal. June's inflation already came in at 11.1% - down from 11.7% in May - and the trajectory remains downward. One fortnightly price hike does not change that picture.

Watch the next fortnightly revision around 26 July. If Brent crude holds near $72-76 or falls further as Iranian supply normalises, the next revision should be flat or a small cut. If Middle East tensions re-escalate and oil spikes above $85-90 again, expect another hike. The volatility in oil prices is the volatility in your family's cost of living right now - they are directly connected.

$41.6 billion - Pakistan's total remittance inflows for FY2025-26, the highest in the country's history. The previous record was $38 billion set in FY2024-25. In three years, Pakistan's annual remittance inflow has grown by over $10 billion - from $31 billion in FY2022-23 to $41.6 billion today. That $10 billion increase, sent through official channels by overseas Pakistanis, has been the single largest driver of Pakistan's reserve recovery, rupee stabilisation, and return to current account surplus. Every reader of this newsletter is a contributor to that number.

⚡ THE QUICK THREE

🏠 EXPAT CORNER - This week’s practical tip

Petrol just went up Rs13. Here is the honest impact on your family's monthly budget - and what to watch next.

The Rs13 hike today will add roughly Rs650-800 to the monthly transport costs of a typical Pakistani household that uses one motorcycle or relies on CNG-powered rickshaws for commuting. That is the honest number - material but not catastrophic, especially in the context of where prices were in April.

Here is the framework for thinking about petrol prices going forward. There are two scenarios.

In the first scenario - the peace deal holds, nuclear talks progress within the 60-day window, Iranian oil flows normalise, and Brent crude drifts back toward $65-70 - petrol in Pakistan falls back below Rs290 by September. Your family's cost of living continues its post-war recovery. Inflation falls into single digits by August.

In the second scenario - Middle East tensions re-escalate, the 60-day nuclear window expires without agreement, Hormuz disruptions resume, and Brent crude spikes back above $90 - petrol reverses much of its recent decline, inflation stays elevated, and the SBP considers another rate hike. This is the tail risk, not the base case, but it is real.

The practical implication: if you are considering a large transfer to Pakistan to take advantage of the still-favourable rupee rate and improved economic outlook, do not wait indefinitely for perfect certainty - it will not come. The structural improvement in Pakistan's economy is real and the remittance record of $41.6 billion proves it. Send regularly, use Wise or ACE Money Transfer, and watch the 26 July petrol revision as your next data point on where oil prices - and your family's cost of living - are heading.

Next petroleum revision: 26 July. Next SBP rate decision: expected August 2026. Hit reply - what do you most want covered next week?